Uncertainty persists in Ethiopia's Tigray region after recent conflict

Operating a hair salon in Mekelle, the capital of Ethiopia's northern Tigray region, has become difficult. Firut Me'ar, who manages a salon in the city, said that residents are struggling with basic survival.

"People can't prioritise beauty over daily basic needs. For many residents, thinking about self-care is a luxury, at a time when they can't feed their kids," Firut, a single mother of a 10-year-old daughter, said. She noted that while the national army now controls the city, life is not normal because people lack money and morale, leaving business almost non-existent.

Fighting erupted in late September between the national army and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), which had governed the region for decades. This conflict marked a return to the two-year civil war that officially concluded in 2022. Federal forces entered Mekelle within two weeks after the TPLF performed what they described as a "strategic withdrawal" from major towns.

Reports indicate that hundreds of people died during the fighting, with dozens killed by air force bombing raids and drone strikes. Government officials claim the war is effectively over and the focus should now be on clearing out TPLF elements. Getachew Reda, a TPLF official who is now an adviser to the prime minister, stated that the war has ended and stabilisation is the priority.

Analyst Cameroon Hudson explained that the TPLF's rapid defeat stemmed from a loss of popular support and a lack of advanced military technology to match the Ethiopian National Defence Forces (ENDF). He added that the group has been weakened by internal fighting, the loss of strategic thinkers, and the arrest or defection of key generals and diplomats. Scholar Abraha Hailezgi of Mekelle University noted that the TPLF army is now viewed by many as an adversary due to associations with forced recruitment and abuses.

However, TPLF spokesperson Mikael Asgedom, speaking from an undisclosed location, rejected claims of defeat. He described the situation as a deliberate tactical and strategic retreat, stating, "This is not a defeat."