Russia and US seek to block binding rules for autonomous weapons

Plans to address the lack of global governance regarding autonomous weapons face uncertainty as a coalition of countries, led by the US and Russia, prepare to block proposals for a legally binding set of rules at a United Nations conference this month. The extent of this opposition will become apparent during a diplomatic retreat starting this Friday, ahead of the seventh review conference on “certain conventional weapons” in Geneva, which is scheduled to host 128 nations from 16 to 20 November.

This review conference is considered a critical juncture where the international community could decide whether to approve a mandate for negotiating a legally binding instrument within a set timeframe. It is widely acknowledged that the pace of autonomous weapons development and their use in combat is accelerating. Anna Hehir, the head of military AI governance at the independent nonprofit Future of Life Institute, noted: “States have never been closer to launching a global agreement on AI weapons. A lot of the hard work has already been done and states have now agreed by consensus to elements of a draft treaty text that would be the basis for negotiations to start.”

However, Hehir warned of potential obstruction, stating: “But we will likely see some states hide behind language that has the veneer of progress but advocates for a continuation of endless discussions on voluntary measures that have no teeth. The proposals for more years of discussions on non-legally binding measures are smokescreens to keep autonomous weapons systems unregulated and states unaccountable for their use.” While UN discussions on this topic have persisted for nearly three years, nations including the US, Russia, and Israel are resisting the establishment of a firm timetable for a binding agreement.

In a message intended to influence the proceedings, Pope Leo XIV emphasised that life-altering decisions should never be delegated to machines. He said: “Decisions affecting human life, freedom and the use of force must always remain subject to effective, informed and responsible human oversight. For this reason, artificial intelligence must be ‘disarmed’, and I encourage the states meeting in Geneva in November to take concrete steps toward banning lethal autonomous weapons.” Organisations like Stop Killer Robots and Human Rights Watch argue that AI-assisted weapon systems are prone to unpredictable behaviour, which increases the likelihood of fatal errors and scenarios where battlefields spiral beyond human control.

The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) stated on Thursday: “The time has come to move from discussion to negotiation on new international rules to regulate autonomous systems. The world cannot afford further delays.” Evidence of the technology's deployment emerged in July, when Ukraine reported that Russia had utilised an AI-guided drone to strike a propane tank at a fuel station in Zaporizhzhia. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine has expressed concern regarding the rapid advancement of AI weaponry, urging that the conflict be resolved before such technology dominates the battlefield.

On 22 October, a group of 50 nations, including Italy, Ireland, Brazil, France, Mexico, and Germany, called for the conference to adopt a strict negotiating mandate. Furthermore, the ICRC reported that over 70 states support the initiation of negotiations for a legal instrument. The UK, however, did not support the Irish statement, having previously maintained that current international humanitarian law provides a sufficient basis for regulating such systems.

The Ireland-led coalition proposed a mandate that would create a time-limited expert group tasked with negotiating necessary rules over 25 days across three sessions in Geneva in 2027. This group would then be required to submit a draft protocol to the annual meeting expected later that year. In September, a UN experts group report prepared for the Geneva review conference sought to address moral concerns by supporting calls for human control and judgment, alongside limits on the operational range and scope of these weapons.

The French government expressed approval of the experts group proposals, suggesting they provide a solid foundation for a mandate that “bans completely autonomous weapons systems and regulates systems with autonomous functions”. Conversely, the US generally prefers that individual states implement their own controls in accordance with existing humanitarian law. The Pentagon has established an autonomous weapons working group, and similar committees in Germany are currently attempting to define how human oversight can be maintained over these systems.

In August, the outgoing UN secretary general, António Guterres, and the ICRC president, Mirjana Spoljaric, warned that the world was “nearing a moral red line where autonomous weapons could kill without human involvement”. They added: “Negotiations must begin now to urgently adopt a legally binding instrument to regulate autonomous weapons.”