Kenyans fear deadly impact of predicted El Niño floods

Workers are currently busy clearing drainage systems across Nairobi, a sprawling city constructed on hilly terrain intersected by three major rivers. However, officials face a significant challenge as they attempt to prepare for the predicted impact of El Niño weather patterns.

Blocked drains and insufficient sewage infrastructure were widely blamed for the high number of deaths during floods earlier this year, as the excess rainfall had nowhere to escape. Nairobi County disaster management chief, Bramwell Simiyu, told the BBC that drainage systems have been "untouched for many years" and that removing the rubbish from them will save lives.

Floods disproportionately affect informal settlements in Nairobi, particularly those located near rivers, such as Kibera and Mathare. In many of these areas, houses sit just a few metres from the water, with some residents living on the river slopes due to the constant expansion of the settlements. When flash floods occur, these homes are frequently swept away, endangering the lives of their occupants.

Nairobi's drainage system has not been upgraded to cope with the rapid growth in population and infrastructure over the past decades. "The existing drainage system was developed 30 years ago to cater for a population of about 2.5 million residents but we're dealing with about 7 million in the daytime and 5.5 million night-time," Mr Simiyu stated. He added that an investment of up to $192m (£143m) is required to upgrade the sewerage and drainage system entirely, though there is little sign that cash-strapped authorities can raise these funds.

The Nairobi River Basin Regeneration programme, a government initiative aimed at restoring the city's rivers, found that settlements near rivers and weak enforcement of regulations have increased flooding risks. It recommended a "buffer" to protect rivers and the "humane relocation" of communities where necessary. However, rising poverty has continued to drive many people to live close to the water.

Regarding the potential impact, Mr Simiyu noted that his department's "worst case scenario looking at low-income settlements is that up to about 100,000 people are at risk." He added that "Moderate projections is about 5,000 households or about 20,000 people may be at risk." Anyone forced to leave their homes will be relocated to 167 designated holding grounds where a stockpile of relief food and supplies will be distributed, according to Mr Simiyu.