Russian territorial gains in Ukraine slow as diesel exports struggle

Russian battlefield advancements in Ukraine have dwindled to almost nothing throughout this year, according to data from Kyiv’s military and independent observers. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think tank that monitors geolocated footage, reported that Russian forces seized 117.38 sq km (45.32 sq miles) of land in the first 10 months of 2026. In comparison, Russia gained 5,304 sq km (2,047.95 sq miles) in 2025, which included 473 sq km (182.63 sq miles) of territory recaptured in the Kursk region, and 3,604 sq km (1,391.31 sq miles) in 2024.

This indicates an advancement rate of 0.38 sq km (0.15 sq miles) per day for 2026, significantly lower than the 13.25 sq km (5.12 sq miles) per day seen in 2025 and 9.9 sq km (3.82 sq miles) per day in 2024. Additionally, Russia is experiencing higher casualty figures this year. Ukraine’s General Staff estimated that from January 1 to October 31, 381,300 Russian personnel were killed or seriously wounded. Al Jazeera cannot independently verify these casualty figures.

Reported Russian losses have broken monthly records repeatedly since the summer, with 42,860 in July, 46,230 in September, and 54,400 in October, as Ukraine’s military aimed to meet a monthly target of 50,000 casualties established by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in January. These losses exceed Russia’s estimated recruitment capacity of 24,000 to 30,000 per month. While Russia lost firm control of Ukrainian territory during April and May, it expanded areas of infiltration where control remains contested. By September and October, ISW assessments showed that Russia lost both infiltrated and firmly controlled land.

President Zelenskyy and his prime minister have pointed to these worsening trends as the motivation for Russia’s intensified long-range strikes on energy infrastructure. These attacks have caused civilian deaths, leading many Ukrainians to conclude that Moscow is engaging in psychological warfare. During the week ending on November 6, Russia launched an unusually heavy barrage involving 2,346 drones and over 80 missiles across Ukraine. The intensity peaked on November 3, with 76 missiles and 370 drones deployed, leaving hundreds of thousands of families facing blackouts as winter approaches.

In one of the deadliest strikes this year, at least 50 people were killed in the village of Komyshuvakha, located in the Zaporizhzhia region. Ukraine’s military intelligence service (GUR) stated, “The invaders knew that on Mondays, humanitarian aid was distributed at the Komyshuvakha resilience centre. Residents of the community come here for food, medicine, essential items.” The strike occurred on the final day of a six-day ceasefire in Oleshky, a town 250km (155.34 miles) southwest of Komyshuvakha in the Kherson region.

This localised ceasefire, brokered by US First Lady Melania Trump, was the longest ever observed and allowed for the evacuation of 800 residents from the besieged town in Russian-occupied territory. Russian military reporter Vladimir Romanov was arrested by authorities in his country after he reported that residents of Oleshky who chose to go to Ukraine filled 17 buses, while those opting to go to Russia filled four. Moscow previously cited the alleged abuse of its Russian-speaking minority in Ukraine as a primary reason for the 2022 invasion, claiming it would be welcomed as a liberating force.

Ukraine has resumed daily targeting of Russian oil refineries, hitting eight facilities in the past week. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak noted that three refineries were struck on October 30. On October 31, Ukraine hit two refineries within the Ufa complex in the Bashkortostan Republic. The following day, Lukoil’s Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez refinery in Nizhny Novgorod was struck, followed by a production and dispatch station in the Samara region. The Yaroslavl oil refinery was hit on November 3, and the Ryazan oil refinery on November 5.

These strikes aim to deprive Russia of export revenue and energy, while also undermining a deal made by President Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump on October 9. The US leader had invited Russia to sell 1.8 million tonnes of diesel to the global market by year-end to reduce transport costs. This invitation conflicted with US oil sanctions and the Lindsey Graham Act, which Trump had signed 11 days earlier, granting him the power to sanction countries purchasing Russian oil.

The Financial Times reported that the Kremlin has filled four tankers with diesel in hopes of selling to the US, but these tankers have failed to find buyers due to the legal risks. The Kremlin has dismissed the report as fake news.