Israel fears impact of US midterm results on bilateral ties

Israelis are currently grappling with the question of what the recent US midterm election results mean for the nation's security and influence. Despite rising frustration among American voters, President Donald Trump's public insults directed at Benjamin Netanyahu, and disagreements regarding operations in Iran and Lebanon, a sense of firm US military and diplomatic support had previously seemed unshaken.

The Israeli prime minister frequently highlighted his close ties to the President, characterising the connection as a "true friendship" and "unwavering support". Only nine months ago, the Israeli public observed their armed forces conducting military operations alongside the US military. During that time, the "unprecedented" coordination between the two allies was a constant theme among politicians and military spokespeople.

However, a surprise statement from President Trump during a Fox News interview this week caused significant shock. He declared he would halt $3.8bn (3.4bn euros; £2.8bn) in US military aid to Israel two years earlier than originally scheduled. The concern in Israel stemmed less from the financial loss than from what the decision indicated regarding the country's standing as a diplomatic partner.

The president of Israel described the announcement as "a bolt from the blue". A report by Yedioth Ahronoth noted that officials remained uncertain about whether the President's comment was serious two days later, with the headline stating: "Nobody knows anything."

Several days later, the office of the Israeli prime minister issued a response to the news. It claimed that the transition from US aid to a partnership arrangement demonstrated "the strength and sophistication" of the bilateral relationship.

Although US military aid accounts for less than 10% of Israel's total annual military budget, experts remain concerned. Yaakov Katz, who has written several books on Israeli defence and security, noted that the announcement represents the start of broader questions concerning future funding, arms sales, and joint military projects. He suggested these could be stalled or slowed by a Democrat-controlled Congress, even without the two-thirds majority required to override President Trump.

"Everything that Israel used to get in a simpler, easier process will now potentially be much more complicated, and Israel has to be prepared that this is a new reality," Mr Katz explained. He added: "Our entire Air Force is American-made military planes, we're dependent on American spare parts and American weapons. The last three years have shown us how dependent we are on American missile-defence systems. [If] those don't show up at the same pace, that's a real difference – that changes your calculation of what you're able to withstand if you go to war."

Mr Katz also expressed his belief that the midterm results could lead to stricter demands regarding Israel's conduct in Lebanon and Gaza, alongside a requirement to avoid undermining an agreement with Iran. An unnamed US official remarked: "Something will change in the US-Israeli relationship, but it's a question of scale. It means shifting to [being] willing to criticise Israel when it's warranted, but the bedrock fundamental relationship will still be there."

In an interview on Israeli television, US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee indicated there had been little change to core American positions, such as the occupation of the West Bank. He described sanctions imposed by other nations as "irrational" and counterproductive. Meanwhile, Israel's UN ambassador, Danny Danon, told a separate Israeli channel that President Trump would remain in the White House for two more years. He stated that Israel could "feel good" about the US veto in the UN Security Council, which Washington has used repeatedly to block resolutions targeting Israel.

"But we have to pay attention to the voices – not only in the Democratic Party but also the Republican Party – criticising Israel," Mr Danon said. "It will be harder for us."